The State of The Organization:Starting Pitching

The biggest question going into this offseason was the Mets starting pitching. Omar Minaya is rumored to be intent on acquiring a starting pitcher, either via trade or free agency. So here we review the Mets options from a fan’s point of view, both from within the organization and from outside.Who’s in the rotation?

1. Pedro Martinez: Pedro looked to be fully recovered from his shoulder surgery when he returned to the rotation in September. I would not bank on Pedro being the pitcher from his days in Boston, nor am I expecting 30 starts from him. He will battle hard and give the Mets a chance to win on the days he pitches.
2. Oliver Perez: Ollie is eligible for arbitration, but it is almost a sure thing that he will return to the Mets. Perez continues to struggle with his consistency, but has electric “stuff” when he’s on.
3. John Maine: Faded after the all star break, but still a good young pitcher. Could be included in a deal for an ace, but almost a lock to be in the rotation come spring training.

In the organization, but not necessarily the rotation:

1. Orlando Hernandez: Aging and has battled injury woes the past two seasons. Rumors abound that Hernandez will be moved to the bullpen, but my bet is the Mets will be unable to acquire enough pitching to move Hernandez out of the rotation.
2. Mike Pelfrey: The organization seems to have soured on Pelfrey after he was unable to hold onto his spot in the rotation after being given a chance last spring. Pelfrey was much better when he returned to the rotation after the all star break, but still seems to be on the outside looking in. Voted Most Likely To Be Traded.
3. Philip Humber: Runner up in “Most Likely To Be Traded”, was inconsistent when called up in September. Unlikely to be in the rotation, but could earn a chance if he isn’t traded and has a strong spring.
4. Kevin Mulvey: Stock has been rising steadily after a good season in AA with the B’Mets. If pitching remains in flux, could make an appearance in Shea after the all star break.

Free Agent Targets:

1. Livan Hernandez
2. Freddy Garcia
3. Kyle Loshe
4. Bartolo Colon

Now, lets take a look at this cast of characters. Right now the most talked about course of action would be to sign Livan (I’m El Duque’s Brother!) Hernandez  and have him be the third or fourth man in our rotation. Lemme tell you why this is a bad idea…HE’S LIVAN HERNANDEZ! Last year with Arizona, The Great Cheeseburger finished the season with a 4.95 ERA a WHIP that was over the League Average and a mediocre record of 11-11.

Next you’ve got Freddy Garcia, who only pitched in 11 games last year and cost the Phil’s 10 million bucks for just one measely win. PLUS in the 11 games he did pitch in, he had an ERA over five. No good there either.

Kyle Lohse? Does anyone really care about Kyle Lohse? I mean…I guess I’ll give the stats anyway. 9-12, 4.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP yadda yadda yadda. Seriously…it’s Kyle Lohse. We’re not getting Kyle Lohse.

 Which leaves only one real top flight pitcher left out of the bunch and let me be the FIRST to say that if we DO NOT GET Johan Santana, we will end up with this guy because Omar loves him, and to be honest I like him a lot too.

Bacon Cheeseburger (or Bartolo Colon, whatever you wanna call him) did not have his best year in 2007 but was also hurt for a great portion of time, he went 6-8 with an ERA over six, but honestly he could really be the steal of the free agent market. The guy eats innings, still has some gas on his fast ball, and is a former Cy Young award winner, also, he always seems to wind up on winning teams. Indians were good, Barto was there, the small time the Expos were good, Barto was there, The Angels win the World Series? Once again, Barto was there. Personally, he might not be the ANSWER, but he certainly wouldn’t hurt.

Trade Targets:

1. Joe Blanton
2. Matt Cain
3. Johan Santana

With the trades of both Haren and Willis elimination them from coming to the Mets, the only options left seem to be an inconsistent Joe Blanton and of course SANTANAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, but nothing is set in stone with either of them. Blanton could be a good pick up for the right price but with an ERA of almost 4 in an absolute EXPANSE of a ball park, I don’t think he’s the answer the Mets are looking for. The only other option that leaves is Matt Cain, and while he would more than likely be a can’t miss number one after developing the next couple of years, we’d have to give up a lot for him as well. The real question is, as is with any trade, are these guys really worth the price it would take to get them?

 Right now I’d have to say the future of our pitching situation looks bleak, and if Omar doesn’t do something quickly it could get completely out of hand.

Check back later here at PIITB for thoughts on the possible 08 lineup and the state of mediocrity that is our bullpen.

Is It Really Gonna Matter? (A comment on the SantanAHHHHHHHHH situation.)

Why is it that no matter where I go, or who I talk to, we’re still talking about Johan Santana. Don’t get me wrong, I want the guy just as much as anybody else, but we’re seemingly no where closer to getting him than we were before. The Twins are seemingly not going to budge on the move unless we give up our two top pitching prospects AND our two top outfield prospects…leaving us effectively with nothing. It seems to me like the deal might just be too expensive to make it worth our while.

 Now, if you were to tell me that you’d take Mulvey out of the deal and substitute him for Mike Pelfrey, and maybe flip flop F-Mart for someone like…I dunno RYAN CHURCH (cause he’s so god damn useless anyway) I’d be complete content, but right now I feel we’d be giving up far too much, after last years offseason, where we also gave up way too much. Just doesn’t seem to make much sense.

 So honestly where does this leave us? Are we any better off than we were before? Is this Santana talk just to take the eyes off of Omar’s other glaring mistakes this winter? Well frankly I’m not gonna forget, and I hope that if he does get Santana that nobody else forgets either. This trade would in no way make up for the fact that we have an aging second baseman with a bum wheel for four more years, our catching situation is a complete debacle, and one of our best pieces of trade bait got sent away IN DIVISION for Rosa’s grandpa and a crumb cake.

So I want everyone to take a real long look and wonder if having Johan Santana is really going to make up for losing some key players, and having a mediocre bullpen.

 Really think about it.

 -Boyce The Bear

SantanAAAHHHH!

Rumors continue to circulate that the Mets are serious contenders in the Johan Santana sweepstakes.  Earlier reports had stated that the Mets would need to include Jose Reyes in any deal for Santana, but multiple sources confirm that the Twins and Mets are continuing to talk with the understanding that Reyes is unavailable. The current offer is a four man package centering around Carlos Gomez.

I would speculate that the other four in that deal might be Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey and Aaron Heilman. Philip Humber and Fernando Martinez could also be involved, but Humber is apparently not highly valued by other clubs, and I don’t believe that the Mets would include both of their young centerfielders in one deal.

I believe that the Twins are reluctant to send away a former cy young for a collection of prospects and my gut feeling is that this deal does not get done. That said, if Omar was able to pull off this trade without losing either of our young established starters (Maine and Perez) or our top prospect (Fernando Martinez), I would be extremely pleased. The main stream media has made it clear that Santana would agree to a contract extension before any trade is completed, an important fact which allows teams to pursue him without fear that he will opt for free agency after only one season with his new team.

The Mets desperately need Santana. The rotation lacks a true ace and Omar’s offseason following last year’s debacle has been less than overwhelming. The Mets are raising ticket prices and moving into Citi Field in 2009. Teaming Santana with Maine and Perez would give the Mets a potent Top 3 that would make them instant contenders in the weak National League. I believe that Omar has to be extremely aggressive in pursuing Santana. Including 5 or 6 prospects should not be out of the question. Omar’s ability to complete this deal will define the Mets offseason and possibly the next several years.

A Wise Decision?

The Mets have signed former Milwaukee reliever Matt Wise to a one year contract worth a reported 1.2 million dollars. Wise appeared in 56 games and finished the year with three wins, two losses and 4.19 ERA. Wise had an extremely respectable year until an unfortunate incident involving a baseball, Matt Wise, and Cincinnati Red Pedro Lopez’s jaw. Following the beanball, Wise finished the year with an ERA almost reaching eleven. 

If you want to look at it from the glass half full perspective,  before the aforementioned issue, Wise had a really good year. If you look at the glass half empty, Wise could be in the midst of a complete nervous breakdown that may result in him wearing clown makeup and crying a lot on the team bus. I’m obviously happy that Mota is gone, (what kind of Met fan wouldn’t be happy about that?) and maybe we could find lightning in a bottle with Wise for considerably cheaper than he may be worth, or we could wind up with a raving lunatic. I’d say the jury is still out on this one and we’ll have to wait to see who Matt Wise really is. 

Chris (concurring):  I have always felt that putting together a solid bullpen is largely luck. Relievers are wildly inconsistent from year to year. That said, I feel cautiously optimistic about our bullpen going into next season. I support this signing.

Where Now?

Where do the Mets turn now?  Omar Minaya has made it clear that the primary area of need this offseason is the team’s starting pitching.  Unfortunately, Omar has been unable to pull the trigger on any deal, free agent or otherwise, to improve the rotation.  The free agent market has very little to offer.  The Mets may be interested in either Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia, but neither would be better than a number 3 starter.  Dan Haren has already been traded to Arizona and there are no indications that the Mets have any chance at acquiring Erik Bedard.  There have been mixed signals as to the Mets ability (or lack thereof) to trade for Johan Santana*.

I have been generally impressed by Omar since he took over as the Mets GM.  Signing Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran gave the Mets instant credibility 3 years ago.  Kris Benson was traded for John Maine and Orlando Hernandez (originally Jorge Julio who was sent to Arizona in the El Duque trade).  Unfortunately, Omar’s hand has gone cold.  Trading away Brian Bannister too early and holding on to Lastings Milledge too long (or not long enough depending on your school of thought) has hurt the Mets dearly.  Omar also traded away Heath Bell and Royce Ring, leaving the Mets bullpen very thin in 2007. 

Omar has been given every chance to succeed with the Mets.  He came to an organization flush with young talent (Wright, Reyes) and a willingness to spend money.  The blame for the Mets stumbles down the stretch in 2007 should be squarely with the players, but Omar is not blameless.  The Mets are worse than they were 1 year ago.  The Mets are now an old team with an ugly history.  The time for Omar to make a deal is now. 

*I have previously written a post as to reasons why the Mets should not acquire Johan Santana.  That post was based on the assumption that Santana would not sign an extension without testing the free agent waters.  That assumptions seems to have been false, so I will update my opinion.  I feel that the Mets should make every reasonable effort to acquire Santana.  What is reasonable? That’s another story for another post.

Running in Place

This title of this post is meant to serve as an assessment of the Mets, as well as an explanation for the recent state of this blog.  We’ll start with the blog, which is probably easier to explain.  The unfortunate lack of new content recently can be attributed to several things.  First and foremost though was the preoccupation of yours truly with law school exams.  The exams are now over, along with the first year of law school, so significantly more time can be spent blogging away about those Amazin’ Mets.  I anticipate  several weeks of uninterrupted new content as the Mets roster begins to take shape.

Speaking of the Mets, progress has been slow recently for Omar.  The Mets still have not acquired a starting pitcher; Dan Haren was traded from the Oakland Athletics to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Erik Bedard seems to be a good bet to start the season in Baltimore, and the Mets chances at Santana seems shaky at best. Some sources cite the Mets refusal to include Reyes as a significant obstacle, while some around the Mets organization remain hopeful that Santana could be in a Mets uniform this season, particularly with the Yankees and Red Sox cooling on the prospect of trading top prospects and paying Johan a hefty sum of money.

Was Milledge Worth Dealing?

 

First off, let me say that this is my first post on PIITB and I should have been writing more but I am probably the laziest of the three writers, but that doesn’t take away from my desire to discuss, argue, and comment on New York Mets Baseball. 

After hearing of the Milledge deal, which sent Lastings to the Nationals for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider, I didn’t really know how to react. At first, like a majority of Met fans, I was a little confused on why we would trade away probably our most proven young guys for an older OF with a possible upside, and an OLDER catcher with no stick. Sure, Schneid, gives us the defensive upgrade that we needed, now pairing with Baby Eater #11, but why deal L-Mills when we could have used him to pick up the BIGGER piece to our off-season puzzle in obtaining a staff ace?

After thinking more about it, listening to some of the guys on the radio, some of the callers, I developed my theory behind Omar’s deal, and I believe he will regret this trade, a trade in my eyes, that may be just as bad as the Kazmir trade.By Minaya dealing Lastings, its obvious now that we cannot use him to obtain a Haren, an Oswalt, or a Bedard, and now we are either going to have to trade away more i.e., Humber AND Pelfrey as opposed to just one or the other. Also, we are going to have to include our NEW top prospect (now that Milledge is gone), in Gomez, and I don’t want to do that.

A variety of sources say that the young Fernando Martinez is poised to be the next big name for the Mets, and THAT may even trigger other GM’s to look to obtain Martinez over Gomez.If we end up grabbing one of these washed up middle of the rotation guys like a Livan Hernandez or a Carlos Silva, I don’t really see us making any sort of impact that we hoped to this off-season. I feel that the Mets love being mentioned in trade talks with big names, but never pull the trigger because we do not have the necesary pieces to deal, and now that we just dealt on of those pieces, it looks like Omar is going to be running around looking for things in his home to give away in a trade for a big name pitcher which we need more than ANOTHER OF and a defensive catcher. But look at it this way Omar, at least you know Ryan Church will play on all Jewish holidays.

Estrada a Met…Seriously

Multiple sources are reporting that the Mets have acquired catcher Johnny Estrada from the Brewers for reliever Guilermo Mota. Estrada hit .278 with 10 homers last season for the Brew Crew.Personally, I love this deal. Mota had worn out his welcome in Shea, while Estrada is a significantly better hitter than Yorvit Torrealba.  Pairing Estrada with Ramon “Baby Eater” Castro will giv the Mets the largest pair of starting catchers in the history of baseball.

 Boyce, Concurring:

As Chris stated earlier, I love the fact that Mota is gone, and while I’m not all that hot on Estrada, mostly due to injury concerns, I think he’s much better than Yorvit Torrealba as far as the plate is concerned and he’s not poor behind the plate either. He is a little old though, and he hasn’t shown me all THAT much since that wonderful year in Atlanta, but I’m more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.So in short, lets see what Estrada is gonna be all about, and you know…screw Stephon Marbury.

Castillo Limps Back to the Mets…

 

 The Mets have come to an agreement with free agent second baseman Luis Castillo on a 4 year, $25 Million Contract.This deal comes after the Mets were rumored to be wining and dining David Eckstein. Eckstein is believed to have been asking for a deal in the 4-year, $36 Million Dollar range.

I would concur with Omar in choosing Castillo over Eckstein, who I believe is overrated due to his percieved “hustle” and “scrappiness”. Castillo comes at a cheaper price, but the length of the deal is worrisome. Castillo is s a slap hitter with very little power, and thus very dependent on his legs. As a result, Castillo’s numbers have seen a steady decline over the last couple years as he experienced knee problems, probably linked to his time on the Metrodome’s carpet. Castillo hit .296 with 1 home run and 8 doubles after coming over to the Mets this past season. Castillo underwent surgery this offseason, and his recovery will go a long way in deciding whether this deal is a good one. 

There were several other options at second, both via free agency (Eckstein, Tadahito Iguchi) and within the organization. Ruben Gotay had a breakout season last year, hitting .295 with a .421 slugging percentage. He also had 4 homers and 12 doubles (compared to 1 and 19 respectively for Luis Castillo in almost twice as many). The Mets traded for Gotay because of his perceived upside, but now have decided to keep him firmly anchored to the bench. While I understand that going into spring training with Gotay as the starter could be too risky given his relative lack of experience, but I hope Ruben still gets some starts. I am nervous about Castillo’s knees, I hope Omer knows more than I do.

Boyce, Concurring in Part, Dissenting in Part: FOUR YEARS? SERIOUSLY?

What has Luis Castillo shown us that warrants a four year deal? A guy who was never a great hitter, has serious knee problems, and his one greatest asset, his speed and defensive range don’t outway his negatives in any way shape or form anymore. This deal is ridiculous.

What I wanna know is, who did Reuben Gotay piss off? I know I might be the only one that cares, but didn’t this guy hit pretty well and didn’t play awful defense. Is he Castillo in the field? Probably not, but he offers more pop in his bat, and at this point can sure as hell run better than Castillo. I was ok with Castillo for one year, maybe two…but four years is absoultely absurd, and makes me assume that Omar is spending most of our payroll on bad tabs of acid.

Oh and did I forget to mention the fact that Castillo is supposedly a horrible influence in the clubhouse?

Mets Return Glavine, Ask For Refund

According to several sources, Tom Glavine will return to the Braves, signing an 1 year, 8 Million Dollar Contract. This was pretty much a foregone conclusion from the minute Tom walked off the mound at shea on the last day of the regular season.

The Mets have the option of offering Glavine arbitration. Assuming Glavine declines arbitration, the Braves would owe the Mets a compensatory draft pick (a first rounder, if I am not mistaken). The only potential drawback would be that Glavine could agree and return to the Mets at a salary set by an arbitrator.

I understand that Glavine ate up alot of innings and brought professionalism to the Mets clubhouse. Tom Glavine is a Hall of Fame pitcher…but not for what he did with the Mets.

I will do my best to relay my judgments on Tom without being caught up in his last start. Tom proved this season that he is no longer a 1 or 2 pitcher in a rotation. At this point, Tom is completely dependent on umpires giving him an extra couple inches on the corners. When Tom doesn’t get the calls on the corners, he is completely ineffective. While Tom had his share of solid starts this season, he was wildly inconsistent and pitched the Mets out of several winnable games.

The big question is how will the Mets replace Tom. Tom pitched 200 innings, and made 34 starts of which 23 were “quality starts“. On the other hand, Tom’s ERA of 4.45 was unremarkable. For comparison, Mike Pelfrey put up a 4.88 ERA after the All Star Break when he seemed to find his groove.

Personally, Tom didn’t instill much confidence in me this season. I was much more confident on days Ollie or Maine were coming to the mound. Personally, if we are going to have a wildly inconsistent pitcher, I would rather have it be one of the kids from the farm*. I thought Pelfrey really started to come on towards the end of last season and at least his struggles would be a learning experience for the future. I am not too concerned with the loss of Glavine.

*Note: An upcoming post will be devoted to the Mets pitching situation in general and possible offseason moves.